US Job Growth Expected to Rebound in February Following Weak January Nonfarm Payrolls.

US Nonfarm Payrolls Forecast: February Job Growth Set for a Rebound

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is set to release the highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for February on Friday at 13:30 GMT. Investors and analysts will closely monitor the data, as it could impact the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy decisions and influence the US Dollar (USD) in financial markets.

US Job Market Outlook: February NFP Expectations

Markets anticipate a 160,000 increase in NFP for February, marking a recovery from January’s disappointing 143,000 job growth. Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate is projected to remain steady at 4%, and Average Hourly Earnings are expected to hold at 4.1% year-over-year.

Expert Insights on the February Jobs Report

According to TD Securities analysts, job gains are likely to hover just below 150,000 for a second consecutive month. They highlight that high-frequency data suggests weaker job creation compared to February 2023. Analysts also predict a slight uptick in the Unemployment Rate to 4.1% and expect wage growth to normalize at 0.2% month-over-month.

Private Sector Employment Falls Short

The Automatic Data Processing (ADP) report, released on Wednesday, revealed that private sector payrolls increased by only 77,000 in February, significantly missing the 140,000 market forecast. This underwhelming data raises concerns about the broader labor market’s strength heading into the official NFP release.

Key Takeaways for Financial Markets

The upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls report will be crucial in shaping the Fed’s monetary policy outlook and could drive volatility in the US Dollar and stock markets. A stronger-than-expected report may reinforce expectations of delayed rate cuts, while weaker data could fuel recession concerns.

Stay tuned for the official NFP release on Friday, March 8, as markets react to the latest US labor market trends.